There are several types of data and analysis that can be helpful –
some would say critical – for informing the development of a
comprehensive housing strategy. A clearly defined mission for the
housing strategy process can be helpful in focusing this analysis. At
the same time, the analysis may lead a taskforce to revise its mission
to focus on a broader, narrower, or different set of policy concerns.
Some of the needed information is statistical in nature, and thus will
be most effectively gathered by a statistician or other researcher,
while other critical input can only be provided by practitioners and
other stakeholders:
1. Needs assessment.
This analysis looks at the extent to which different population
segments face housing affordability and quality challenges. Typically,
a needs analysis reports on:
- the share of renters and homeowners at different income levels
paying more than 30 percent or 50 percent of their income for housing,
- the amount and location of substandard housing; and
- the housing challenges facing specific population groups, such
as the elderly, people with a disability, and minority households.
In
considering these data, it is important to remember that the standard
measures of housing unaffordability – are families paying more than 30
percent or 50 percent of their income for housing? – are merely rules
of thumb that, while easy to understand and often useful for comparing
one place to another, may not tell the whole story. Many families that
show up as only moderately cost-burdened (30 to 50 percent of income
for housing) or not burdened (less than 30 percent of income) in fact
may have real difficulties affording their housing costs. A family with
an income between $20,000 and $50,000 that spends 26 percent of its
income for housing and 31 percent of its income on transportation –
these are the actual median figures for families in the Dallas, TX
metro area as of the 2000 Census – has very little income remaining to
meet other essential expenses such as nutritious food, health care,
education, retirement, etc. [
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2. Analysis of demographic and market trends.
Because most of the nation's housing – including most affordable
housing – is supplied by the private sector, it is important to
understand current and projected market conditions, as well as expected
population trends. To the extent that demand for housing is expected to
increase due to net in-migration of families from other communities or
increased household formation – in some cases, due to smaller household
sizes – it is important to examine whether the market is able to
respond adequately to this increased demand by producing new housing.
It is also important to understand the extent to which housing
preferences are changing. For example, interest in downtown living and
in housing well-located near transit has grown significantly in recent
years. What is the expected future demand for various housing types and
locations in your community?
This analysis should also focus on
the availability of land for development. To what extent are sites
available for new development or redevelopment? Are there enough sites
available to meet projected demand at current densities? To what extent
could increases in density be used to accommodate increased demand
within areas well served by current infrastructure? Where appropriate,
it may be useful to include within this analysis an inventory of
potential sites for
infill development.
Researchers
and housing practitioners will sometimes characterize a community's
housing market as strong or weak. Strong-market cities tend to have
stable or rising demand for housing and a strong economic base. In many
of these communities, housing prices have risen rapidly over the past
five to ten years. In
weak-market
cities, housing prices are not rising at all or as fast, in part
because of declining demand and/or a weak economic base. In
strong-market cities, the major focus of affordable housing strategies
is generally on bringing down the price of homes to an affordable
level, with housing affordability concerns reaching into the middle
class. In weak-market cities, housing affordability may still be an
issue for poor- and near-poor families, but housing quality may be a
problem of equal weight, as older housing deteriorates and is not
replaced or upgraded. Some communities have a mix of neighborhoods with
strong and weak housing demand.
In this context, it is
important to note that both strong and weak markets are affected by
market cycles, such as the nation-wide housing slowdown that began in
2007. Just because housing prices decline for a year or two does not
make a strong housing market a weak one. Rather, the housing price
declines represent a market correction. In a strong housing market,
housing prices will eventually resume their upward growth unless steps
are taken to change the underlying causes of housing price growth
pressure.
 Photo credit: Chris Palladino
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3. Input from practitioners and stakeholders. In
addition to gathering quantitative (i.e., numerical) data on the nature
and extent of a community's housing challenges, it is important to
consult with stakeholders and practitioners to learn more about what
they perceive the principal housing challenges to be, what obstacles
they experience as they seek to address these problems, and what
solutions they propose to resolve them. In many cases, developers
working to build affordable homes can pinpoint specific problems that
delay and drive up the costs of new development, as well as problems
with current financing and funding mechanisms. Practitioners and
stakeholders also may have ideas for creative solutions to expand the
supply of affordable homes.
Input from residents and other
stakeholders can be particularly useful for better understanding the
housing challenges facing working families, which often do not show up
clearly in the official
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data, but are
nevertheless real and worth addressing. For example, workers who move
to the edge of the metropolitan area because no affordable housing is
available closer to work, may have housing costs that fall below 30
percent of their income, but now have to purchase a second car, spend
more on gas, and endure long commutes. In other cases, workers may be
looking for different types of housing than are currently available
near work – for example, apartment living rather than a single-family
home, or vice-versa. Working families also may be experiencing
challenges finding communities that combine all of the attributes they
are looking for in a single package, including affordable housing,
proximity to public transit or the workplace, safety, good schools,
etc. As a result, employers may very well be experiencing high rates of
turnover among key employees and area residents may be experiencing
increased traffic congestion.
4. Analysis of the root causes of the community's housing challenges.
While the needs assessment will help communities understand the
magnitude of their housing challenges, it will not indicate how those
problems arose. A separate analysis is thus needed to identify the root
causes of the community’s housing problems so they can be addressed in
a comprehensive and strategic fashion. For example, one of the major
factors contributing to the shortage of affordable housing is the
cumulative impact of the complicated regulatory environment that makes
it difficult or expensive to build new homes. Many of these policies
are well-intentioned and necessary – for example, to advance
environmental objectives; others are designed to deliberately slow
development. By making it difficult for the market to produce new
supply in response to increased housing demand, however, these barriers
drive up the price of housing for everyone.
For example, below
is an excerpt from the report of the Washington D.C. comprehensive
housing strategy task force that identifies some of the specific
problems driving up housing prices:
"Recently graduate students
in the School of Public Policy and Public Administration at George
Washington University conducted a study of the D.C. Department of
Consumer and Regulatory Affairs (DCRA), the office that is responsible
for inspecting housing and issuing construction permits, certificates
of occupancy, and other licensing services. The study concluded that
the DCRA faces serious obstacles in its day-to-day operations. These
include understaffing, weak training, an inadequate budget, out-of-date
technology, a weak managerial culture, ineffective coordination with
other agencies, and poor presentation of information to customers. In
addition, the unique relationship between the District government and
the federal government and its various agencies adds a layer of
complication that is not present in other cities.
As a result of
the problems that DCRA faces, the development review process often
drags on much longer than it should. The process consists of four
phases: historic preservation, zoning, permitting, and inspections. Of
these, the longest delays often occur in the permitting phase. Securing
an Environmental Impact Statement, if one is deemed necessary (not
every development calls for one), can take a year. The permit review,
in which DCRA engineers review a project, is supposed to take 30 days,
but on average it lasts six months to a year. In comparison, the same
process takes an average of one month in Chicago and three weeks in
Philadelphia.
It is clear that strengthening the DCRA and DHCD
to improve the lending, permitting and inspections processes is
essential to producing housing quickly enough to solve the District’s
pressing needs."
The following are some of the factors to consider in analyzing the root causes of a community's housing problems:
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- Constraints on new development and redevelopment that prevent the
market from responding efficiently to increased demand for housing
- Community opposition to new development generally and affordable housing specifically
- Decisions by owners of affordable rental housing to exit federal subsidy programs
- Decisions by owners of unsubsidized but affordable rental homes to
substantially upgrade or sell their properties to take advantage of
higher market rents or property values
- The deterioration of older homes due to neglect or lack of financing for repairs
- The loss or diminished buying power of deep subsidies for
affordable homeownership that are not required to be repaid or do not
keep pace with the market
- Lack of coordination between housing and transportation planning
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- Difficulty accessing financing for various expenses, such as to rehabilitate older homes
- Shortages of land on which to develop
- Low-density development patterns that constrain supply and make it difficult to build affordable homes
- Activity by investors to purchase and "flip" properties for a profit
- A proliferation of predatory loans and/or sub-prime loans that may not be affordable over the long-run
- Credit problems that make it difficult for families to qualify for a well-priced mortgage
- Challenges faced by existing homeowners affording their housing costs
- Insufficient funding for affordable housing
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5. Inventories of current assets and programs.
Gaining a better understanding of the assets and programs currently
available to a community to meet its housing challenges can be helpful
in identifying both the promise and the limitations of the current
lineup. The community's assets include its existing stock of affordable
homes – both affordable rental homes and for-sale homes subject to
ongoing affordability requirements; the nonprofit and for-profit
developers focused on building and preserving affordable homes; the
staff of the government agencies that administer housing programs;
affordable housing lenders and funders; and the stakeholders –
employers, community groups and others – willing to advocate for
stronger housing programs and policies. By closely examining these
assets, taskforce members can gain an understanding of the extent to
which there is underutlilized capacity among existing assets – for
example, a willingness by banks or local foundations to expand
financing for affordable homes or the ability of existing developers to
ramp up their production – and/or a need to build capacity in
particular areas – for example, stronger capacity among nonprofit
developers to build more homes through multi-year operating funding
tied to clear development milestones; lenders willing to make
particular types of loans, such as loans to rehabilitate smaller rental
properties, etc.
An inventory of existing housing programs and
policies is also important. By matching up this inventory with the
specific housing challenges identified by taskforce members, the
taskforce may be able to assess whether existing programs are adequate
to meet each of these needs, and potentially, which gaps in policy or
funding are the most pressing.